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小橙书国产精品视频 Risk Barometer 2024 -
Rank 8: Political risks and violence

Expert risk article | January 2024
The world was rocked by further international conflict, coups, and civil unrest in听2023 and the challenges will continue in 2024.
The most important corporate concerns for the year ahead, ranked by 3,069 risk management experts from 92 countries and territories.

Businesses and their supply chains face considerable听geopolitical risks with war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle听East, and ongoing tensions around the world. Political risk听in 2023 was at a five-year high, with some 100 countries听considered at high or extreme risk of civil unrest [1]. Further听unrest is expected in 2024 as economic gloom continues,听particularly in debt-crisis countries, while protestors calling听for action about a number of different causes will aim to听cause more disruptive events.

The year was marred by multiple protests in France听against pension reforms and the murder of teenager听Nahel Merzouk, which led to intense violence, property听damage and looting. The continued rise of populist and听far-right parties in Europe resulted in electoral success听in the Netherlands and Slovakia, reinforcing the political听shift of 2022, when Italy elected a party with neo-fascist听roots, Hungary re-elected Viktor Orb谩n, and the far-right听Sweden Democrats took over 20% of the votes in a听general election.

Turmoil has also been seen in numerous African countries,听notes Srdjan Todorovic, Head of Political Violence and听Hostile Environment Solutions at 小橙书国产精品视频 Commercial,听driven by the September 2022 coup in Burkina Faso, and听further successful coups in Niger and Gabon in 2023. While听these coups have been relatively peaceful, Sudan is rapidly听escalating into civil war, mainly in its capital Khartoum.听Economic difficulties are challenging many countries,听in particular Tunisia, which teetered on the edge of听violence as President Saied continued to rule through听decree and without a Parliament.

Latin America is a region that commonly sees big shifts in听politics and pre- and post-electoral violence, and 2023 was听no exception. Brazil experienced an attack on its National听Congress building after the re-election of the leftist Lula听da Silva and ousting of Jair Bolsonaro, while Argentina听saw mass protests against the newly elected populist,听Javier Milei. In contrast, Guatemala saw supporters of听the president elect, Bernardo Ar茅valo, protesting against听institutions halting his inauguration. While these are mostly听intra-state issues, potential cross-border violence could be听ignited with Venezuela鈥檚 territorial dispute with Guyana.

听 Ranking history globally:
  • 2023: 10 (13%)
  • 2022: 13 (9%)听 听
  • 2021: 10 (11%)
  • 2020: 11 (9%)听 听
  • 2019: 11 (9%)听 听
听 Top risk in:
  • Ivory Coast

The defining moment of 2023 was the Hamas attack on听Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza. This has not only听led to thousands of innocent deaths in Gaza but has also听increased pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli protests globally.听The conflict has quickly escalated beyond its defined听borders with the pro-Hamas entities attacking shipping听and launching drones and ballistic missiles towards Israel.

Amid all this conflict, 2024 is also a record-breaking election听year, when as much as 50% of the world鈥檚 population could听go to the polls, including in India, Russia, the US, and the听UK. So many elections raise concerns about the fueling of听populism and polarization which may manifest in increasing听civil unrest activity. Disillusionment with ruling incumbents听and concerns over the fairness of elections, fueled by social听media, could also ignite unrest in certain territories.

鈥淲e anticipate continued challenges to come,鈥 says听Todorovic. 鈥淚n addition to increased risk of election-related听SRCC [strikes, riots and civil commotion], we see clear trends听in increased risk of terrorism in Western Europe and North听America. This is primarily driven by the Israel and Gaza war听leading to a radicalization of certain parts of the population听in these regions.

鈥淔urther, with more states or governments听asserting their territorial claims over others, as well as听claims of border insecurity, the risk of pre-emptive cross-border听wars is increasing in certain regions through 2024.鈥

[1]听Verisk Maplecroft, The Trendline 鈥 Global political risk at highest level in five years, February 2, 2023

Picture: Adobe Stock

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